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eutertyurtyu
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Quote cjf6akfby Replybullet Posted: Jun 16 2013 at 12:54am
es. Cependant, ce n'est pas, à mon avis, la solution qui sera retenue à court terme.Le scénario le plus probable serait la conclusion d'un accord avec les acteurs du secteur privé qui ont prêté de l'argent au pays : la valeur de la dette ne varie pas mais on allonge la période de remboursement. Dans ce cas, il ne s'agit pas nominalement d'une défaillance de l'État grec, puisque le capital dû reste dû. Mais cela n'en demeure pas moins une restructuration : il y a une perte de revenu pour les détenteurs de dette grecque.Comment en est-on arrivé là ?Aujourd'hui, la Grèce ne pourrait pas se faire prêter d'argent sur les marchés, les taux d'intérêt demandés étant trop élevés, à hauteur d'environ 15 %. Ce niveau s'explique par le fait que les marchés anticipent que le pays ne pourra pas rembourser entièrement sa dette, ou devra allonger ses échéances. Or,louis vuitton pas cher, d'ici un an et demi, l'État sera obligé de revenir sur ces marchés pour financer sa dette. En effet, une partie de celle-ci arrivera à échéance et il lui faudra emprunter de nouveau.Par ailleurs, les prévisions qui concernaient l'économie grecque étaient trop optimistes. Les diminutions de dépenses organisées par le gouvernement ont été drastiques, le plan d'ajustement imposé par le Fonds monétaire international, la Banque centrale européenne et la Commission européenne a été draconien. Mais cela n'a pas suffi à faire croître les revenus de l'Etat.Il faut ajouter que les réformes structurelles pour améliorer le recouvrement de l'impôt, notamment en ce qui concerne la fraude fiscale,sac louis vuitton, prennent du temps et ne réussissent pas vraiment. Le déficit public du pays a d'ailleurs augmenté par rapport à ce qui était initialement prévu.La Grèce ne pouvant pas emprunter sur les marchés dans ces conditions, il va donc falloir que l'Union européenne lui prête de l'argent. Cela ne va toutefois pas être simple : certains pensent que les Finlandais vont opposer leur veto à ce nouveau prêt.Dans ces conditions, quand peut-on s'attendre à un retour de la Grèce sur les marchés financiers ?Si on opère une restructuration forte de la dette grecque, par exemple en la divisant par deux, on peut espérer un retour rapide du pays sur les marchés. Cela s'est déjà vu en Amérique latine,sacpascher-sac.com, lorsque ces restructurations ont été négociées avec les créditeurs. Dans ces cas-là, on a vu des pays revenir sur les marchés trois à quatre mois après la restructuration. Il faut toutefois qu'elle s'effectue rapidement, efficacement, et qu'elle soit bien acceptée par les marchés.Cette aide supplémentaire ne va-t-elle pas pousser d'autres pays à la réclamer ?On peut imaginer que si la Grèce obtient un prolongement de ses crédits, d'autres pays le demanderont aussi. À mon avis, cela concernera surtout l'Irlande. Mais la première conséquence serait une augmentation rapide des taux d'intérêt appliqués à l'Irlande, justement, ainsi qu'au Portugal. Cette tendance est d'ailleurs déjà amorcée.Propos receuillis par Vincent MatalonLe monde abonnementsProfitez du journal où et quand vous voulez. Abonnements papier, offres 100 % numériques sur Web et tablette.S'abonner au Monde partir de 1 Les rubriques du Monde.frInternational Politique Société Économie Culture Sport Techno Style Vous Idées Planète Éducation Disparitions Santé Les services du MondeLa boutique du Monde Le Monde dans les hôtels Cours d'anglais Annonces auto Annonces immo Tirages photo Rencontres Shopping Comparateur crédit Devis travaux Conjugaison Programme télé Jeux Météo Trafic Prix de l'immobilier Sur le web Bars Marseille Les sorties cin Programme TV de M6 en replay Bande annonce Le programme t l visionLes sites du GroupeTélérama.fr Talents.fr Le Huffington Post CourrierInternational.com Monde-Diplomatique.fr Les Rencontres professionnelles Le Monde La Société des lecteurs du Monde Le Prix Le Monde de la rechercheLe MondeTélérama Le Monde diplomatique Le Huffington Post Courrier international La Vie au Jardin S'abonner au Monde àpartir de 1
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Quote gehvnxtcp Replybullet Posted: Jun 16 2013 at 11:56am
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Quote uloyncbebqehs Replybullet Posted: Jun 21 2013 at 12:42pm
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