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common factor: Hardcore criminals are especially likely to own guns — and to be killed by guns. Social scientists have long recognized that correlation doesn’t prove causation, because the two correlated things may actually be caused by a third thing. That’s why sound social science requires that scientists use statistical tools that control for a wide variety of such “confounding factors.” This particular study in fact tried to control for various factors. Before controlling for those factors, the study actually found that gun-homicide victims were slightly less likely to own guns than the nonvictims were. The correlation between gun ownership and gun homicide arose when the study controlled for sex, race, age, marital status, education, income, veteran status, region, population of area of residence, and whether the person lived alone. The study, however, completely failed to control for what might well be the most important factors: whether the household contained violent criminals, gang members, http://www.tomsoutletsaleonlinecheap.com - toms shoes online , drug dealers, and the like. These are the very factors that might cause both gun ownership and gun death. And because the study didn’t control for them, it says nothing about whether gun ownership really “increases the odds” that a law-abiding citizen will be killed. The study’s results could easily flow simply from the huge set of homicide victims who are themselves criminals. Curiously, the study starts by pointing out that an earlier study, which used a similar approach, “inspired a paper trail of challenges that continues to grow.” The new study was partly a reaction to those challenges. But a key argument in those challenges was precisely that the earlier study didn’t adequately control for the victim’s criminal background — and yet the new study made the same mistake, and in fact control for fewer factors than the earlier study did. The new study didn’t even try to deal with the possibility that law-abiding citizens aren’t endangered by their own guns, but rather that gun-owning criminals are jeopardized by their gun-owning criminal associates or enemies. To its credit, the University of Pennsylvania study does mention this potential problem (though the press release and the New York Times article don’t). “The results could be biased,” the study says, “because risky behaviors like drug dealing could not be controlled with the data used here.” But, the study argues, this confounding “is not likely to explain the results completely” — if the victim’s own criminal background caused both the gun ownership and the victim’s death, “a gun in the home should be associated . . . with homicide by all means,” and not just guns. This, though, is unpersuasive: Drug dealers or gang members may be especially likely to kill each other precisely with guns, and not knives, clubs, or bare hands. Likewise, the study finds a correlation between gun ownership and suicide — but doesn’t control for the obvious possibility that some people bought the guns precisely because they’re suicidal. The study points to another study that supposedly shows that gun ownership is correlated with suicide even when the gun had been owned for years (though much less strongly than when the gun has been owned for only a short time). But that other study is itself similarly flawed: It controls only for age, http://www.tomsoutletsaleonlinecheap.com - cheap toms shoes , sex, and geography, and ignores other important factors such as history of involvement with drugs and with drug dealers, a history of chronic depression, or other personality or environmental traits. Unfortunately, this is how conventional wisdom is molded. A badly flawed study leads to an even more flawed New York Times article. Readers read it and say “Wow, it’s dangerous for me to own a gun” — or “Since guns endanger even their owners, there’s really no reason to keep them legal.” Precisely because the study seems so authoritative, so scientific, it’s likely to be influential, even when it’s misdesigned and misreported. And this is especially so when these flaws are repeated i
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History is not on his side. Woods has never won a major from behind, every Masters champion has been no worse than a tie for fourth going into Sunday dating to Faldo s comeback in 1989. But at least he s still in the game.
Mr. Winsley plans to visit at least 50 schools. Prior to his presentations, Mr. Winsley distributes to students a remarkably artful picture book "Where are you going?" published by his wife, April Dawn Winsley. Mr. Winsley's principal sponsor is The Water Innovations Alliance http://www.waterinnovations.org/index.php, the public policy voice of the world's water researchers, technologists and innovators.
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