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Quote wu4f7h91dt Replybullet Topic: toms shoes online marital status
    Posted: May 16 2013 at 4:16am
common factor: Hardcore criminals are especially likely to own guns — and to be killed by guns. Social scientists have long recognized that correlation doesn’t prove causation, because the two correlated things may actually be caused by a third thing. That’s why sound social science requires that scientists use statistical tools that control for a wide variety of such “confounding factors.” This particular study in fact tried to control for various factors. Before controlling for those factors, the study actually found that gun-homicide victims were slightly less likely to own guns than the nonvictims were. The correlation between gun ownership and gun homicide arose when the study controlled for sex, race, age, marital status, education, income, veteran status, region, population of area of residence, and whether the person lived alone. The study, however, completely failed to control for what might well be the most important factors: whether the household contained violent criminals, gang members,toms shoes online, drug dealers, and the like. These are the very factors that might cause both gun ownership and gun death. And because the study didn’t control for them, it says nothing about whether gun ownership really “increases the odds” that a law-abiding citizen will be killed. The study’s results could easily flow simply from the huge set of homicide victims who are themselves criminals. Curiously, the study starts by pointing out that an earlier study, which used a similar approach, “inspired a paper trail of challenges that continues to grow.” The new study was partly a reaction to those challenges. But a key argument in those challenges was precisely that the earlier study didn’t adequately control for the victim’s criminal background — and yet the new study made the same mistake, and in fact control for fewer factors than the earlier study did. The new study didn’t even try to deal with the possibility that law-abiding citizens aren’t endangered by their own guns, but rather that gun-owning criminals are jeopardized by their gun-owning criminal associates or enemies. To its credit, the University of Pennsylvania study does mention this potential problem (though the press release and the New York Times article don’t). “The results could be biased,” the study says, “because risky behaviors like drug dealing could not be controlled with the data used here.” But, the study argues, this confounding “is not likely to explain the results completely” — if the victim’s own criminal background caused both the gun ownership and the victim’s death, “a gun in the home should be associated . . . with homicide by all means,” and not just guns. This, though, is unpersuasive: Drug dealers or gang members may be especially likely to kill each other precisely with guns, and not knives, clubs, or bare hands. Likewise, the study finds a correlation between gun ownership and suicide — but doesn’t control for the obvious possibility that some people bought the guns precisely because they’re suicidal. The study points to another study that supposedly shows that gun ownership is correlated with suicide even when the gun had been owned for years (though much less strongly than when the gun has been owned for only a short time). But that other study is itself similarly flawed: It controls only for age,cheap toms shoes, sex, and geography, and ignores other important factors such as history of involvement with drugs and with drug dealers, a history of chronic depression, or other personality or environmental traits. Unfortunately, this is how conventional wisdom is molded. A badly flawed study leads to an even more flawed New York Times article. Readers read it and say “Wow, it’s dangerous for me to own a gun” — or “Since guns endanger even their owners, there’s really no reason to keep them legal.” Precisely because the study seems so authoritative, so scientific, it’s likely to be influential, even when it’s misdesigned and misreported. And this is especially so when these flaws are repeated i Related articles:
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Quote trrjfiitqs Replybullet Posted: May 17 2013 at 3:07pm
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Quote yvoaicfan Replybullet Posted: May 18 2013 at 9:52am
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Quote dupxhaerf Replybullet Posted: May 18 2013 at 3:24pm
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Quote mmufl8v8d0a Replybullet Posted: May 21 2013 at 8:59pm
oup, il raconte, ce qui vraiment l'a remué : " J'ai découvert le tournoi ! " s'exclame-t-il encore émoustillé " l'engouement de la foule, la pression, l'intensité. " Assis sur un bord de table dans la salle de presse de Clairefontaine il retourne le problème : " En fait, cet incroyable public nous a déstabilisés mais aussi transcendé. " Samedi au Stade de France, il pourra presque, comme son copain Imanol, jouer, déjà, les vieux habitués. J. C. 0 commentaire La discussion est fermée : vous ne pouvez pas poster de nouveaux commentaires.Sports -    le 1 Mars 2002   Gérard Bourgoin veut déplumer le foot français    Prise de tête. L'ex- roi du poulet veut transformer l'info en marchandise. Indigeste.    Gérard Bourgoin est hilare. Mardi dernier, à la première heure, le patron de la Ligue nationale de football (LNF) prend connaissance du boycott des radios contre son appel d'offres de partenariat. " C'est la fête à Bourgoin ", s'esclaffe-t-il, alors que son grand projet de vente des droits de retransmission des matchs de D1, de D2 et de la Coupe de la Ligue semble dans l'impasse. Le grand patron du foot profrançais ne réalisera pas son rêve d'appliquer à la radio les méthodes mises en place pour la télévision... pour le moment. Pas de problème, Gérard Bourgoin et ses collègues patrons de club ont adopté depuis plus d'un an une politique des petits pas à long terme. Les revendications libérales sont régulièrement martelées : demandes insistantes pour alléger les charges fiscales qui pèsent sur les formations de l'élite ; attaques en règle pour changer le statut des clubs en société anonyme, avec entrée en Bourse à la clé ; appels publics pour privatiser les droits de retransmission des matchs au profit des matchs de D1 et de D2. Sous une apparence de coup par coup non prémédité, la tactique libérale de la LNF est très méthodique. Elle est même inscrite noir sur blanc dans la charte 2002 adoptée le 1er février par le conseil d'administration de la Ligue. Cette charte montre le football professionnel tel que le rêvent les dirigeants des clubs. " Aujourd'hui pèse sur nos clubs beaucoup d'incertitudes, explique Gérard Bourgoin. Mais beaucoup moins qu'avant. " Voilà ce que recherchent les " big boss " du ballon rond : amener leurs équipes au sommet de l'Europe en gommant au maximum les vicissitudes du sport. Pour rivaliser avec les Anglais, Espagnols et autres Italiens, il faut beaucoup de sous, disent en cour ces dirigeants. Il faut donc dégager un maximum de nouvelles recettes (dont les droits radios), si possible stables sur plusieurs années, pour éviter que les contre-performances sportives ne grèvent les comptes. En cherchant à libéraliser le ballon rond, la LNF veut en fait le privatiser au profit des grands clubs. " On conduit le sport à sa perte si l'on considère qu'il s'agit d'un secteur économique comme les autres. Car l'objectif n'est plus la compétition sportive elle-même, mais le résultat financier. Il faut donc gommer les aléas de la compétition. Ce système peut aboutir par exemple à des matchs truqués ",polo burberry pas cher, explique Jean-Pierre Karaquillo, directeur du Centre de droit et d'économie du sport. L'aile dure du patronat des clubs, Bourgoin en tête, est parvenue à rallier les modérés. Une fois la paix retrouvée avec ses collègues, elle s'est attelée à museler l'opposition des autres familles du ballon rond au sein de la LNF. Chose faite aujourd'hui, les représentants des administratifs dénonçant récemment " l'hégémonie de présidents ploutocrates ". La FFF n'ose trop rien dire face à cette gestion mercantile triomphante. Elle fait pareil avec ses Bleus (partenariat signé avec RTL) et les amateurs recevront pour prix de leur silence un gros chèque de 62,sac burberry pas cher,5 millions d'euros sur cinq ans. Malgré leur boycott contre les droits de retransmission,chemise Burberry, les radios présentent un front fissuré, RMC-Info, par la voix de son président, Alain Weill, ayant concédé qu' " il est difficile d'avoir un avis définitif " sur cette question. Il ne
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Quote tj5r0gyh4f5 Replybullet Posted: May 22 2013 at 4:03am
e mouvement des "privés d'emploi", c'est l'ensemble de la société qui réclame des changements. Le gouvernement ne devrait pas sous-estimer la profondeur du mouvement des ch"meurs. Il n'y a plus, désormais,lunettes ray ban, que Nicole Notat pour s'autopersuader qu'il y a manipulation. Voilà qui pourra nourrir des discours sur la coupure entre élites et peuple. Il ne s'agit pas de débattre du nombre Ä croissant Ä d'occupants des ASSEDIC ou de manifestants, mais de percevoir à quel point la majorité de la population s'identifie à ce mouvement et à l'interpellation du gouvernement. Nous sommes dans un pays où sept millions de personnes sont touchées par le ch"mage et la précarité. Tous les autres vivent dans la crainte de connaître un jour leur sort et sont ainsi anxieux de savoir si la société les abandonne ou pas. Pendant vingt ans, les gouvernements successifs ont appelé aux sacrifices au nom de la solidarité envers les plus démunis et,hermes birkin, aujourd'hui,sac hermes, ce sont ces mêmes plus démunis qui demandent qu'on leur réponde. 63% des Français considèrent que les violences urbaines trouvent leur origine dans le ch"mage. Bref, toute la société est en demande de réponses efficaces qui aillent au-delà des premiers gestes faits. Et c'est aussi parce qu'il est de gauche que le gouvernement est interpellé, car c'est bien le rejet des règles traditionnelles qu'avait exprimé le résultat des élections législatives. Tout tourne autour de "où trouver l'argent?". Eh bien! pendant le mouvement des ch"meurs, la presse a annoncé que les gains de la Bourse représentaient des milliards de francs. Comment ne pas considérer alors que la politique c'est aussi de décider ce qu'on fait de cet argent. Evidemment, le grand patronat pousse des cris d'orfraie, non pas comme représentant des entreprises qu'il laisse par ailleurs dépérir, mais bien comme le parti d'un ultralibéralisme privé de l'intervention d'une droite terriblement discréditée. Il est clair qu'on ne peut contenter à la fois l'attente des citoyens et les exigences du CNPF. Le moment est venu d'oser faire ce qu'aucun pouvoir précédent n'avait eu le courage d'entreprendre: faire admettre au patronat que le r"le de l'argent est de servir les hommes et de leur permettre de vivre ensemble dans la société. Cela implique à la fois de répondre à l'urgence Ä relèvement des minima sociaux et prime exceptionnelle Ä et de prendre des décisions vigoureuses en faveur de l'emploi et de la relance de l'économie. La démonstration est faite qu'une société avec tant de ch"mage devient invivable. Y remédier vaut bien d'engager les investissements nécessaires. La prise de position du Parti communiste en faveur des ch"meurs, sa présence aussi bien parmi eux, qu'au sein d'un gouvernement qui doit les entendre, ses propositions peuvent créer une dynamique entre mouvement social et pouvoir d'Etat. Pour répondre aux attentes et aux espoirs, le problème posé à la majorité n'est pas d'aménager d'hypothétiques espaces qu'auraient laissés vacants les marchés financiers, mais bien d'imposer à la vie économique de nouvelles règles. 0 commentaire La discussion est fermée : vous ne pouvez pas poster de nouveaux commentaires.Social-Eco -    le 12 Janvier 1998 Editorial par Claude Cabanes Les hommes   L'intervention de la police est choquante et vaine. Le mouvement des ch"meurs est né du nouveau paysage politique et constitue un atout pour le gouvernement. Pendant des semaines, presque tous les soirs à l'heure du journal télévisé, la dramatique vérité du ch"mage a crevé l'écran. Surgis de la nuit de l'anonymat, des visages inconnus, burinés par la cruauté du dénuement et de la détresse, ont exigé que la société leur rende ce qu'elle leur vole: l'appartenance à la famille humaine. Après quelques hésitations, alerté en particulier par les communistes, le premier ministre a pris la mesure de la nouveauté et du retentissement du mouvement des ch"meurs. L'intervention de la police dans des locaux occupés est donc non seulement choquante du seul
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Quote negumkbpndbc Replybullet Posted: May 25 2013 at 12:01am
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Quote ivt216dv Replybullet Posted: May 28 2013 at 9:42pm
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Quote 782yxhc3t Replybullet Posted: Jun 02 2013 at 12:41pm
Secondly, its very right to consider India as swing power. Its support or opposition can cause strategic difference to China's handling of TPP, Japan, South China issues etc.
History is not on his side. Woods has never won a major from behind, every Masters champion has been no worse than a tie for fourth going into Sunday dating to Faldo s comeback in 1989. But at least he s still in the game.
Mr. Winsley plans to visit at least 50 schools. Prior to his presentations, Mr. Winsley distributes to students a remarkably artful picture book "Where are you going?" published by his wife, April Dawn Winsley. Mr. Winsley's principal sponsor is The Water Innovations Alliance http://www.waterinnovations.org/index.php, the public policy voice of the world's water researchers, technologists and innovators.
Iran's moderate presidential candidate, Hassan Rouhani,chanelmaindesign, said Thursday that he will have " constructive interaction" with the world if elected as president, local media reported."We can solve our problems with the world and correct our relations,http://www.toryburchmaindesign.com/," said Rouhani, adding that "Today, we should cooperate with the world" on the basis of logic.He said that the "hostile" relations between Iran and the United States should be corrected so that "confrontation could be avoided."Elsewhere, Rouhani,coach factory outlet, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, said the slogan of his campaign is "Saving Iran's economy and restoration of morality."About Iran's nuclear issue,christian louboutin, Rouhani said earlier that he will try to return Iran's nuclear dossier from UN Security Council to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran's nuclear program is "peaceful" and the issue should be settled in the IAEA, he maintained.As Iran's chief nuclear negotiator from 2003 to 2005 in reformist President Mohammad Khatami's time, Rouhani led Iran's nuclear negotiations with the European Union trio of Britain,coachmaindesign.com, France, and Germany.Rouhani, who is currently director of the Strategic Research Center of Iran's Expediency Council, said that he will form a " government of wisdom and hope," and plans to draw up a blueprint on "civil rights" if he wins the polls.Dynamic culture, pragmatic politics and flourishing economy are three key elements in managing the country, he added.He pointed out "I have always been moderate and have had good and close relations with both moderate principlists and moderate reformists,prada outlet," adding that "I believe that moderate figures from both principlists and reformists will incline toward me and will support me."Rouhani, the candidate of Iran's Moderation and Development Party,tory burch flats, also said that "parties can play a valuable role in the society" and political parties need to be strengthened in Iran.Political parties in the Islamic republic do not have a major role in designating the country's political strategies. As for the presidential elections, for instance, candidates run for president individually, or influential political figures introduce their candidate for the elections.Iran's Guardian Council of Constitution has announced the names of eight eligible candidates for the presidential election.On Tuesday, Iran's Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar announced that nearly 50.5 million Iranians are eligible to vote in the upcoming presidential election.
Senator Conroy's office Delimiter it was "working with enforcement agencies to ensure that section 313 requests are properly targeted in future" but "websites that breach Australian law can be blocked".
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